The Federal Government has opened discussions with the World Bank for three proposed loans totalling $1.5bn, even as Nigeria’s total public debt rose to N166.79tn at the end of June 2026.
Documents from the World Bank show that the proposed financing consists of three separate $500m facilities targeting climate resilience, social protection and early childhood development.
The first is an additional $500m financing for the Agro-Climatic Resilience in Semi-Arid Landscapes project, ACReSAL. The World Bank has scheduled October 29, 2026, as the estimated date for consideration by its board.
The Federal Government would be the borrower, while the Federal Ministry of Environment would implement the project.
The additional financing would increase ACReSAL’s total funding from the previously approved $700m to $1.2bn, with the financing coming entirely from the International Development Association, the World Bank’s concessional lending arm.
The proposed additional funding would support landscape restoration, watershed rehabilitation, erosion and flood management, irrigation and drainage, water harvesting and storage, reforestation and other climate-resilience measures.
Of the $500m proposed for ACReSAL, $310m would go towards dryland management, $165m to community climate resilience and $25m to institutional strengthening and project management.
The programme currently operates across 19 northern states and the Federal Capital Territory, focusing on land degradation, water insecurity, climate vulnerability and declining agricultural productivity.
The World Bank said desertification and land degradation affected an estimated 43 per cent of Nigeria’s land area, while climate change could reduce the country’s GDP by about 2.6 per cent annually by 2030 and as much as 6.7 per cent by 2050 if not properly addressed.
The second proposed facility is a $500m IDA credit for the Household Prosperity and Empowerment-Social Protection Project, HOPE-SP.
The project is still at an earlier preparation stage, with its technical design review expected on October 30, 2026, and proposed World Bank approval on March 16, 2027.
The Federal Ministry of Finance is listed as the borrower, while the Federal Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and Poverty Reduction would implement the programme.
The proposed financing comprises a $420m results-based programme and an $80m investment project financing component.
The programme is designed to establish regular social assistance for poor and vulnerable households while gradually increasing the role of federal and state budgets in financing social protection.
It would support targeted unconditional and conditional cash transfers, modernisation of the social registry, integration of the National Identification Number into the social protection information system, as well as stronger implementation at federal, state and local government levels.
The World Bank said Nigeria spent only 0.14 per cent of GDP on social safety-net programmes in 2021, compared with a global average of 1.5 per cent and 1.2 per cent among lower-middle-income countries.
It also estimated that the proportion of Nigerians living in poverty rose from 40 per cent in 2019 to 56 per cent in 2023and could reach 62.5 per cent in 2026. The bank attributed the deterioration to factors including the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation, natural disasters and conflict, while noting that fuel subsidy removal and exchange-rate reforms increased living costs in the short term.
The third proposed facility is another $500m for the Nigeria Early Childhood Development programme.
The World Bank has tentatively scheduled its approval for March 15, 2027, with the technical design review expected on October 30, 2026.
The Federal Ministry of Finance would be the borrower, while the Federal Ministry of Budget and Economic Planningwould implement the programme.
The project would cover all 36 states and the FCT, focusing on children aged zero to five and seeking to improve access to health, nutrition, early learning, childcare, water, sanitation and other essential services.
The proposed financing consists of $400m for a programme-for-results component and $100m for investment project financing.
The World Bank said the programme was necessary amid poor early-childhood outcomes, noting that 40 per cent of children under five are stunted, fewer than half are developmentally on track and only 36 per cent of children aged 36 to 59 months attend organised early learning.
The proposed borrowing comes as Nigeria’s debt stock continues to rise.
Fresh figures released by the Debt Management Office show that Nigeria’s total public debt increased from N152.40tn in June 2025 to N166.79tn in June 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of N14.39tn, or 9.44 per cent. The DMO published the June 2026 debt figures on September 25.
In dollar terms, total public debt rose from $99.66bn to $120.93bn, an increase of $21.27bn or 21.35 per cent.
On a quarterly basis, the debt stock increased by N7.44tn, from N159.35tn in March 2026 to N166.79tn in June.
Domestic debt accounted for N91.59tn, or 54.91 per cent of total public debt, while external debt stood at N75.20tn, representing 45.09 per cent.
Federal Government domestic debt rose from N76.59tn in June 2025 to N87tn in June 2026.
Treasury bills recorded one of the sharpest increases, rising from N12.76tn to N19.48tn over the same period, a 52.64 per cent increase.
FGN bonds remained the largest component of Federal Government domestic debt at N64.84tn, including conventional naira bonds, securitised Ways and Means advances and domestic dollar bonds.
Nigeria’s external debt also increased during the period, rising from $46.98bn in June 2025 to $54.52bn in June 2026.
The country’s exposure to the World Bank Group reached $20.73bn by the end of June 2026, comprising $19.12bn owed to IDA and $1.61bn to the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
The World Bank Group therefore accounted for about 38 per cent of Nigeria’s $54.52bn external debt, according to the figures contained in the debt report.
Nigeria’s total multilateral external debt stood at $24.76bn, while commercial debt reached $23.16bn. Eurobonds accounted for $18.55bn of the commercial obligations.
China remained Nigeria’s largest bilateral creditor, with $4.91bn owed to the Export-Import Bank of China and another $573.53m owed to the China Development Bank.
The proposed World Bank facilities come amid renewed debate over Nigeria’s borrowing and debt management.
Former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar has called for a reconciliation of Nigeria’s public debt, including new borrowing, Treasury Bills and other debt-service obligations.
Atiku, through a statement by his Director of Strategic Communications, Phrank Shaibu, also questioned why government borrowing was increasing despite higher government revenues.
“A government that says more money is coming in must explain why it keeps borrowing and why the people paying for its policies cannot see the promised gains,” Atiku said.
Economist Adewale Abimbola offered a different perspective, noting that multilateral loans from institutions such as the World Bank are generally concessional, with longer repayment periods and lower interest rates than many commercial borrowing options.
He said the key issue was how such loans were structured and deployed.
“Borrowing isn’t bad; what matters is utilisation,” Abimbola said.
The three proposed facilities have not yet been approved by the World Bank. Their consideration and approval dates remain subject to the bank’s formal processes.
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