The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has acknowledged the impact of recent economic reforms introduced by President Bola Tinubu’s administration, stating that the measures have improved Nigeria’s economic stability.
However, the global financial institution warned that poverty remains a major challenge, with nearly two-thirds of Nigerians now living below the poverty line.
In its latest assessment of Nigeria’s economy released on Tuesday, June 9, the IMF said policy changes implemented over the past three years have strengthened macroeconomic performance and enhanced the country’s ability to withstand economic shocks.
Since taking office in 2023, President Tinubu has introduced a series of reforms aimed at restructuring the economy. These include the removal of the long-standing petrol subsidy, the liberalisation of the naira exchange rate, and significant changes to the nation’s tax framework.
Although many economists have described the reforms as necessary steps toward long-term economic sustainability, the IMF noted that living conditions remain difficult for millions of Nigerians. According to the institution, poverty affected about 63 percent of the population by the end of 2025, while more than 27 million people faced food insecurity during the same period.
The IMF stated that despite improvements in key economic indicators, the benefits of the reforms have yet to translate into better living standards for a large segment of the population.
Nigeria’s poverty rate has been on an upward trend for several years. Earlier findings by the World Bank indicated that approximately 61 percent of Nigerians were living in poverty, compared with 40 percent in 2019. The World Bank also observed that most of the increase in poverty levels occurred before Tinubu assumed office.
The IMF further identified insecurity as a significant threat to economic growth and household welfare. Armed violence, particularly in northern Nigeria where much of the country’s agricultural production takes place, continues to disrupt farming activities and economic productivity.
Meanwhile, inflationary pressures remain a concern. Official data showed that Nigeria’s annual inflation rate rose to 15.7 percent in April, marking the highest level recorded in five months. Economic analysts linked the increase partly to rising fuel costs driven by ongoing tensions and conflict in the Middle East.
Despite these challenges, the IMF projected that Nigeria’s economy would expand by 4.1 percent in 2026, slightly above the four percent growth recorded in 2025.
The organisation also cautioned that increases in global prices of food, fertiliser and fuel could create mixed outcomes for Nigeria. While higher commodity prices may boost government revenue due to the country’s status as Africa’s largest oil producer, they could also worsen inflation and place additional pressure on low-income households.
According to the IMF, sustained price increases could deepen poverty levels and further threaten food security if adequate measures are not put in place to protect vulnerable Nigerians.
The report comes as Nigeria prepares for the January general election, where President Tinubu is expected to seek a second term in office amid ongoing debates over the impact of his economic policies on citizens’ welfare.
