Petrol prices in Nigeria could come under fresh pressure after international crude oil prices surged above $107 per barrel, adding to concerns over the cost of refined petroleum products in the country.
Brent crude, the global benchmark, rose to around $107 per barrel on Thursday, up sharply from about $100 the previous day, as the ongoing US-Iran conflict continued to disrupt crude shipments through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz.
The latest rally comes after crude traded below $69 per barrel before the conflict escalated on February 28.
Since then, concerns over supply disruptions have pushed international oil prices sharply higher, with the impact beginning to filter into fuel markets.
In Nigeria, petrol prices have already risen from around ₦830 per litre before the crisis to ₦1,310 or more in some locations, according to market reports.
The latest increase in crude prices could put additional pressure on domestic petrol prices if the disruption persists and refiners and importers face higher crude and supply costs.
According to Oilprice.com, Brent gained more than five per cent in early trading on Thursday, extending its recent rally above the $100 mark. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also moved above $100 per barrel.
The sharp increase has been linked largely to falling oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy shipping routes.
Oilprice.com reported that crude volumes moving through the strait, which had previously recovered to between six million and nine million barrels per day, had fallen sharply, with recent estimates putting daily flows below two million barrels.
Shipping activity has also been affected. Shipping trackers reportedly indicated that no very large crude carriers had exited the strait since early September, highlighting the extent of the disruption compared with periods of relative calm.
The situation has been further complicated by attacks involving tankers and other commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf and surrounding waters.
Iran has claimed attacks on several vessels, while the United States has confirmed the destruction of some Iranian oil tankers. Neither side has indicated that an immediate ceasefire is imminent, increasing concerns that supply disruptions could continue.
The uncertainty has forced oil traders to reassess the outlook for global crude supplies, particularly as alternative export routes remain exposed to security risks.
For Nigeria, the development is significant because international crude prices and global refined-product markets can influence the cost structure facing domestic refiners and fuel importers.
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery and fuel marketers have already adjusted prices amid changes in crude and petroleum-product market conditions.
However, a rise in international crude prices does not automatically translate into an immediate or uniform increase in petrol prices across Nigeria. Domestic pump prices also depend on factors including exchange rates, refinery costs, transportation, distribution expenses, supply availability and individual marketers’ pricing decisions.
If crude prices remain above $100 for an extended period and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz continue, Nigerian consumers could face additional pressure at the pump.
For now, there is no confirmed nationwide petrol price increase directly announced as a result of Thursday’s crude oil rally, but the latest surge has increased the risk of further price adjustments if global supply disruptions persist.
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